Friday, 10 May 2013

UKIP wins again and Ramsgate in the news




I am still wondering just what this means in terms of messages to local politicians, and yes there is an obvious message here to national government, a star aspect of which is European referendum or we just won’t vote for you.

Here are ward results for 2007

Election Candidate
Party
Votes
%

Conservative Party
1381
24%
Elected
Conservative Party
1240
22%
Elected
Conservative Party
1225
21%
Elected
Sandy Hart
The Labour Party Candidate
574
10%
Not elected
Margaret Mary Main
The Labour Party Candidate
522
9%
Not elected
The Labour Party Candidate
452
8%
Not elected
Dennis Ernest Franklin
The Green Party
352
6%
Not elected

And for 2011

Election Candidate
Party
Votes
%

Conservative Party Candidate
1187
18%
Elected
Conservative Party
1165
18%
Elected
Conservative Party Candidate
1155
18%
Elected
William Friend
Independent
601
9%
Not elected
Louise Friend
Independent
598
9%
Not elected
Elizabeth Poole
The Labour Party Candidate
515
8%
Not elected
Margaret Symonds
The Labour Party Candidate
490
8%
Not elected
Matthew Rowland Poole
The Labour Party Candidate
456
7%
Not elected
Timothy Peter Patrick Spencer
The Green Party
283
4%
Not elected

And for yesterday 2013

UKIP
699
41%
Elected
Wendy Chaplin
The Conservative Party Candidate
526
31%
Not elected
Alan Currie
Labour Party Candidate
352
20%
Not elected
Louise Elizabeth Oldfield
Independent
112
7%
Not elected
Seth Proctor
Liberal Democrat
32
2%
Not elected



2007
Con 67%
Lab  27%
Green 6%

2011

Con  54%
Lab 23%
Ind  18%
Green 4%

2013
UKIP 41%
Con 31%
Lab 20%
Ind 7%
Lib Den 2%         

This sort of maths is not my strong point, swings and voting trends and of course who came out worse.


One thing that interesting is Labour maintaining their share of the vote particularly if you take Louise Oldfield’s vote into account, it does look like most of the UKIP votes came from the 50% fall in Conservative votes.



Does this mean that the remaining Labour voters are broadly in favour of not having a referendum on Europe I wonder?  


It also makes on wonder about the Lib Dem position which is being presented as preventing the Conservatives form having a referendum on Europe.

I guess if there is one thing that politicians seem to want to do, it is to ignore the electorate, and although I am not so sure that the electorate would vote to come out of Europe, people seem to pretty much universally resent being promised a referendum on the matter and then not getting one.    





As someone who has children of around this age I encourage them to see police officers as being there to help them, a few recent experiences suggest that this may not be entirely the case. Although for me this has been incidences of the officers deal with adults in front of children and of course the general lack of policing where I live in the middle of Ramsgate. Our children are of course aware of the swearing, shouting and occasionally fighting drunks outside of where we live, that goes on until the early hours of the morning. I can well believe that police resources are diverted towards crimes like hopscotch.     

Here are the Ramsgate Town council results yesterday 2013 


Election Candidate Party Votes %
Trevor Leslie Shonk UKIP 224 40% Elected
Scott Dumigan Labour Party Candidate 217 39% Not elected
Barbara Byne The Conservative Party Candidate 94 17% Not elected
Brian Urwin Independent 22 4% Not elected
Seth Proctor Liberal Democrat 3 1% Not elected
 
  Update: 
A Kent Police spokesperson said: "The officer concerned has been advised and accepted that it was wrong to advise the young girl that chalking a hopscotch grid was not criminal damage.

http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/Officer-warned-Ramsgate-girl-hopscotch-lines/story-18948455-detail/story.html#axzz2SUtkkJEA

46 comments:

  1. Talking of messages and local politicians Michael... Louise Oldfield at least had the decency to quickly post a message on her website thanking her supporters and promising to help the winner, yet your hero Ian Driver hasn't said or posted anything 8 days after losing.

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    1. Ah Peter “my hero” my stance with local elections has always been; in the first instance vote for someone I have heard of and that has a record of communicating with people, both generally and individually.

      There are so few of these among our local politicians that it unlikely you would get two standing against each other, for this reason I would vote for Ian Driver or Chris Wells, as examples, if they were the only candidates standing that I had both herd of and who responded to people.

      The big issues here in Ramsgate, Pleasurama, Casino, Westcliff Hall require a non partisan approach and my worries about say Ian using Ramsgate as a platform for political extremism, pale into insignificance beside him actually doing something where in the past others haven’t.

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    2. It seems that he is only "communicating with people" when there's an election coming up though. Waiting a week or more to even issue a short statement is inexcusable.

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    3. Michael, I think we have to accept that a core of Labours voters would vote for a sack of potatoes if it had a red rosette in the same way that the Conservatives have their diehard element. What must concern Conservative HQ is the massive swing to UKIP although the overall right wing vote is a staggering 72%, more than the Conservatives have ever achieved in isolation.

      Likewise, Labour have no cause to celebrate when in the mid term of a Conservative led government engaged in austerity cuts, an election brought about by a Conservative going to prison and an apparent commanding lead in the opinion polls. No, this is a disaster for Labour, but the longer term effect remains to be seen.

      If Cameron persists on his present course and continues to ignore the clear message, then UKIP will split the right wing vote come 2015, without taking many seats, but mainly letting in Labour in the marginals. Thus we are likely to finish up with a majority of the voting electorate wanting a review, at least, of the EU relationship, but with a Labour government elected by a minority committed to staying in Europe at any price.

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    4. Fair first point William and we can almost quantify that about 30% of the electorate are rosette/sack of potatos so about 15% of the whole electorate is required to win. So about 85% of the electorate have a winner that they didn't vote for or care about which is a problem.

      In the 2015 marginals, it's possibly a victory a for UKIP rather than the Tories. Perhaps 2 or 3 UKIP MP's then?

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    5. William. If only it were that simple. Yes UKIP took votes from the Tories in Clif East, but they took votes from Labour in Ramsgate. I don't think anyone can be sure of future results other than if the current government don't listen to what is so obvious to us all, UKIP will be taking parliamentary seats from both parties in 2015.

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  2. The LibDem candidate could call round and thank each of his voters in person.

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    1. Haha! I think they've come last in each recent local election haven't they?

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    2. Yes they have. Although one might surmise that it was due to poor voter turnout because of the bad weather.

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    3. Are Lib-Dem voters less tolerant of bad weather than others then?

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  3. The result was an absolute disaster for the Conservatives in one of their strongest wards in Thanet, The Labour vote held up well although the Independant vote was far down from two years ago, these were many protest votes which went to UKIP.

    I think it was a sack of potatoes with a UKIP rosette this time William.

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    1. Hardly, anon, a new party does not have its bigots and diehards like the two main ones. Furthermore, you would not expect the Labour vote to shrink a bit in such circumstances, especially after bussing in a load of activists to drum up support and sell their message.

      Neither of the big parties can take any comfort from this result and the clear message is that they are both well out of touch with public opinion over Europe and immigration, the issues UKIP fought on.

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    2. Sounds about right 1:21 UKIP are a midterm protest. Unusually two of the three main parties are in power/coalition so it's a rejection of both of them rather than just one as usual midterm. And Labour certainly provide no credible opposition.

      The Tories usually tear themselves to pieces over Europe every few years - this time the older ones have actually splintered into UKIP. Unfortunately, a vote on Europe is empty nonsense as no party or majority of the public wants out of it (nor can we from a trade perspective) but rather effective reform of the political-bureaucracy.

      Every European nation wants into the EU not out of it.

      UKIP will shrink back over the next two years as the racism emerges and no other policies and the older folks die off.

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    3. I don't believe it's just about Europe / immigration, but rather traditional Tory values. The gay marriage nonsense was the final straw for many (whether we believe in it or not, it wasn't in the Tory general election manifesto, and we can hardly imagine Maggie Thatcher introducing such legislation!).

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    4. Allan MallinsonMay 10, 2013 4:26 pm

      Some of the people on here sound like typical politicians trying to somehow make a disaster sound like a victory. What about the safe Labour seat in Ramsgate that went to UKIP. Was that a success for Labour?

      This is not a usual mid term protest, which in most cases favours the opposition, but a clear message that people across the political spectrum are not impressed with they are hearing from the big two, whilst the Lib/Dems have done a kamikazi run.

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    5. I agree with both Peter and Allan which is worrying. To some extent UKIP feels like the 99% movement: they're against several things loosely bit can't actually define what they are for. Or certainly to any great difference form the other parties.

      And Cameron/Clegg/Miliband could each lead any of the other parties.

      The Coalition has been disastrous for the LibDems (and a Coalition is so unusual it changes the dynamic of midterm dissatisfaction as at 3:23) and UKIP has taken on their usual role as a protest vote.

      To a large extent Ramsgate Labour are now a hindrance to Kent politics: the only town that's solidly Labour - but no real demonstration of ability hence UKIP soaking up votes moving back to the original balance on RTC of a few years ago.

      Regardless of rosette though - which is meaningless at a local level - the councillors are useless and corrupt.

      Unfortunately so are the civil servants. So we pay for them for no point. Someone has blunder'd.

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  4. To cleanse Thanet political power requires further pressure on Thanet tories. The East Kent Maritime Trust matter has gone to backburner. How did two tory cllrs creep away from unlimited liability as trustees ? Why had the quarter million pound Butler legacy not been declared to Charity Commission. Why were they anyway under Charity Commission investigation ?

    And there is a point of law and duty jurisdiction for Full Council to consider answers and explanations that tory Cllr Hayton is called on to make. At the present time Cllr Hart leader seems reluctant to involve full council (as required by law.

    Tory sleaze in Thanet is hardy perennial. That voters are sick to death of the Hosers and the Ezekiels and the Watt Ruffells and the Daleys and the Maisons and the Panama resident cllr and which tories may not have declared financial assistance in their property purchases.

    Unless pressure for law and due process is maintained then it will be back to sleaze.

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    1. Usual old nonsense, Rick.

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  5. Rick usually makes some very good points Anon unlike you.

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    1. What, like you just have, 3:52?

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    2. Yes. And like Rick's points above. Unlike you again. This could go on a long time and be very tedious unless you have any points to make beyond silly insults on Thanet corruption. Say the Labour bung or TDC payoffs. Rick is worth ten of you.

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    3. The trouble with the points Rick makes is that he has been making the same ones for years to absolutely zero effect. Cllr Hayton has still not been charged with perjury, although according to Rick he is banged to rights, and nobody has been arrested over illegal ranges, para military activity, Adventure Cadets or the Deal bombing despite all the irrefutable evidence at Rick's finger tips. Accept it, he conjures up these theories from obscure scandal rags and then believes them because they are in print. The bloke's a nutter. If there were any truth in his allegations he would have been found hanging from a London bridge years ago.

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    4. For me the key consideration is that Rick has had his own blogs and websites over the years and used to comment under his own name as a Richard Card signed on to blogger.

      Now comments that look like they may be his appear anonymously, some of them have been doctored by adding obscenities and I am certain that these were not posted by Rick, as other old comment and chunks copied from elsewhere on the internet often appear here, sometimes with links to dubious sites added and sometimes with obscenities added, I treat them all as hostile.

      There me genuine libels in there aimed as closing this blog down, there me accusations made by Rick that he is uncertain of and so they no longer link back to his true identity, I just don’t know and have no way of checking them, so I delete them.

      The policy on this blog is to delete anonymous comment about real people, that may be libellous, is derisory or just damn right rude.

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    5. Both fair points yet Rick raised Sericol contamination. Anon hasn't. Indeed he seems to have made more concrete progress for Thanet than most councillors.

      And if others are messing around with his posts then that's not his fault.

      I don't agree on his rifle ranges etc etc but there does seem an issue around police use of them etc to some extent. Nor that he's conjured them from scandal mags they seem based on his knowledge and experience as far as I can tell.

      It's not especially libellous or irritating unless like say Tom Clarke, or the appalling John Hamilton, it becomes excessive.

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    6. I thought Tom Clarke had packed up but I never recall him making a libellous statement about anyone in any event. John Hamilton just attacks Driver, fairly factually, but if said councillor does not like it he can always sue.

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    7. Tom Clarke has packed up and must not be encouraged to return: thoroughly rude if not libellous. Hamilton's attacks seem to have a homoerotic fascination with Driver. Ian should sue him.

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  6. As one of the only 3 libdems in the town I say bring in PR.

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  7. Clearly as UKIP has not been an option before, it's not really a case of the tories losing the votes, it's simply a question of a vote for a closer examination of immigration in the UK has not been available at previous elections, thus far from teh tories losing the vote, it wasmerely spread across Conservative and UKIP, which is hardly a surprise.

    More tellingly, over the last 2 elections, labours vote has crashed by over 25%, those defecting clearing seeing the light, and defecting to the Tories/UKIP!

    The independant vote has collapsed to an even greater extent, over 60%! Again it seems that those benefiting are the Tories/UKIP!

    It seesm that Labour and "independants" in Thanet are a busted flush! In labour's case, simply because people realise that socialism, in all it's forms, no matter how watered down is poison, and the benefits culture of the UK cannot be allowed to continue. In the independants case, it's clearly simply the electorate rejecting UTTERLY the very poor candidates that stood, remembering how shabbily the electorate was treated last time by some of the "independants" and realising the other's had abolutely nothing of value to offer.

    This election is a GREAT result for kent and Thanet.

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    1. You see John, it's not quite how things work. As well as many Tories being horrified at the march of ukip - see your own leaders comments for a good example - the Tories will lose voters if they swing their policies much further to the right.

      It's not the party stalwarts that win elections, but the floating voters. They will quite happily float off elsewhere if the Tories get nastier.

      Unfortunately, this result confirms Thanet as the basket case of Kent and in pretty poor company up and down the country.

      Weve moved backwards from a criminal council leader. How sad is that?

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    2. I think it is all rather fun. Nothing like a jolly old shake up to get the politicians buzzing and all trying to turn a disaster into a triumph. The Labour vote holding up well, what a laugh. The Tory faithful will return when it matters, in your dreams. The people have had enough of soundbites, unfulfilled promises and of being ignored.

      As for the Tory leader, well apart from being almost totally devoid of leadership qualities he is not a Tory, so what he says is irrelevant, 9:30. On the other side, the brother back stabber is out of his depth and totally ineffective. At least Farage is a down to earth bloke with a pint in his hand, someone many people can relate to.

      Enjoy the moment for it makes a change from voting for the rosettes regardlerss of which clowns are wearing them.

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  8. John your maths don't stack up as per the TDC web site stats.

    Cliftonville east 2009 cons 56% may 2013 30%, 2009 labour 23% may 2013 20%.
    Ramsgate Northwood 2009 cons 50% may 2013 17%, 2009 labour 50% may 2013 39%

    KCC Thanet summary 2009 cons 44% - 2013 26%, 2009 labour 26% - 2013 28%





















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    1. Someone is being highly selective and trying to use figures to prove their case. The hard fact is that Labour should have done much better mid term with an unpopular Conservative led coalition in office. However, if you want to sit back on your laurels and be content with the Labour performance, then fine. Much better for the country than recognising the failure to capitalise and working hard to turn it around before 2015.

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    2. I use the figures Michael published, if they are wrong, take it up with Michael,
      fact is Labour and Independants got trounced.

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  9. So anon 10.39 show me your data that backs up your statement.

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    1. Data and statistics can be used to prove anything you want. The hard fact is that Labour should have done far better according to the polls and mid term of an unpopular government. They didn't and no jiggling with numbers can change that. The Tory hierachy are out of touch with their grass roots supporters. All I am saying is that unless the two big parties take on board the lessons and stop looking for plusses in an appalling election result, this UKIP bandwagon will continue to roll. If it serves as a wake up call, then fine, but if it is allowed to gain momentum I am not convinced it is in the country's best interests. If you prefer to play with figures to convince yourself you won when you actually lost, then all I can say is have fun.

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    2. Well said, 11:24, I was at the county council elections count and the Labour group faces went from smug expectation to shock and finally to resembling slapped rears as the night progressed. This was not the result they were expecting. Tories, on the other hand, were fully expecting the worst and were almost relieved that their seats went to UKIP rather than Labour.

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    3. If you're talking about Cliftonville East it was the Tories who still hoped to win the seat and even had their two Thanet MP's drumming up votes on the day, they've held the seat for countless years and were obviously gutted to lose it to UKIP. Labour never had a chance of winning the seat but held their overall share of the vote from past elections in the ward. Basically voters left the tories in droves and voted UKIP.

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    4. Clifrtonville East is hardly a typical case though, as the last (Tory) winner was sent to prison...

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    5. 3:31 I was talking about the county council elections count, not the Cliftonville East district one. I agree with you there that Labour had little chance and with the Ezekiel factor, neither did the Tories.

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  10. "..unless the two big parties take on board the lessons and stop looking for plusses in an appalling election result, this UKIP bandwagon will continue to roll."

    I'm afraid the UKIP bandwagon will continue to roll because the politicians running the two big parties are not capable of changing. (We can discount the Lib-Dems because they will cease to exist after the next general election). It isn't that we are being governed by conviction politicians. It's just that today's politicians have no opinions of their own and are told what to do by an army of little henchmen. These little henchmen are intellectual pygmies. They live in London and are desperate to portray themselves as knowing what the "ordinary working person" wants. The problem is, they have never done any real work themselves and so, they haven't got a clue. They rely on Facebook and Twitter and we all know that the vast majority of people who use these media post for effect; they don't post what thery really think. We need politicians who talk to "ordinary" people themselves. To do this they have to spend time in their constituencies and have to stop surrounding themselves with sycophantic little pr*cks who tell them what they want to hear. In essence, if you want to broaden your appeal, there's no point in preaching to the converted.

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    1. Well summed up, 11:54, but, as we saw here in Thanet, the tendency to push intellectual pygmies, devoid of any real life experience, on up the ladder continues with the election of Will Scobie. Next it will be a parliamentary candidate slot and so on to Westminster to join all the othe 'experts' who know what is best for us humble mortals.

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  11. I have never trusted anyone who claims to know what is best for me.

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  12. I love your casual pink tinge showing again Michael - you casually add the labour and Oldfield votes as one, then divide the UKIP and Tory votes. Surely if adding left wing votes is fine, then adding right wing votes gives us 72% between UKIP and Tory? Thats why Labour are concerned; anyone who can combine the right wing vote is on to an enormous winner - though I doubt David Cameron is capable of that; whereas Miliband spent the entire campaign talking up his left wing credentials as the country moved to the right. Thats why in the end left wingers are the losers in all this - and I believe MIliband just topped it off with a refusal to countenance a referendum.

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  13. You will have all noticed the absence of the aquifer man with nobody being called stupid, an oaf or an old duffer. Well rumour has it that he accidentally drank some Thanet tap water, was overcome by shock when he realised his mistake and is now languishing in intensive care at the QEQM. As he has no friends, which should come as no surprise, perhaps John Holyer or Peter Checksfield would like to visit him. He can be found on a trolley in a corridor marked 'anonymous.'

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  14. The Aquifer Man might be a franchise.

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