Thursday, 15 January 2015

Putting your money where your mouth is with the Thanet South election.

If you are a betting person you will probably know that you can now bet on the results of the forthcoming general election.
If you looks on the Ladbrookes website (well actually you can’t do this without joining it so here is a screenshot) you will find the odds for the different candidates.


I am not a betting man so I may be wrong here, but I am pretty sure with this odds thing say 100/1, if you bet the amount on the right £1 and your candidate wins, you win the amount on the left plus you stake, steak and eat it, £101.
 I am using some of the politics books on the shelves in my bookshop to illustrate this post, possibly a subtle advertising ploy, we shall see. 
 
 As this is a post about politics an obvious question is am I lying? So lets get that out of the way first, you can peek at websites that want you to join without joining, here is the link.


sneaky really. 
 If I was a betting man I guess I would put a tenner on Labour, not because I particularly think they will win, but because the odds look the best.

If you can’t follow this then you are probably reading the wrong post.
 Of course you may think that UKIP are twelve times more likely to win than Labour, mental arithmetic of this sort isn’t my strong point.

I also don’t know enough about gambling to know whether I would get the same amount if I bet now, if the odds change later on, if you know and they don’t then it may be worth the risk.
What interested me the most here is the that the experts have defined the cats in hell’s chances.

Are there any books written about past Thanet South politicians that don’t go in the sailing or music section in my bookshop?   

14 comments:

  1. 7/1 for Labour is a good bet Michael, get your money down quick and hold the odds as that won't be around for long.

    I wonder if TDC/RTC have got the message that the people of Ramsgate want Ramsgate port to be a site for leisure instead of industry ??? Lets hope they don't try and force it on us as after Manston I don't think I could stand another year of fighting to save the town where I live.
    Why on Earth would our councils try and do so much damage FFS can't they see Ramsgate could easily become a very desirable place indeed

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  2. Very tricky Om, I think the two ex senior TDC planning officers may have had a hand in writing the TDC rulebook with relation to the port, so it may be possible for this to be allowed without much in the way of planning. Combined with the potential operators saying that Ramsgate is a cheaper option, which suggests TDC have already been negotiating with them, things don’t look so good to me.

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  3. The import of aggregate could start tomorrow as this is already an on going operation with Brett concrete as is the batching of concrete also import export of wood is a viable port trade not sure about waste material but if suitably contained could also be allowed all without the need for planning etc

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  4. yep bring it in load it on lorries and sent it out of Thanet. What is not required is a concrete block making industrial site along with a wood chip operation They aren't port related trades

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  5. Enjoying this post so much. Love the photos!
    Now I'm going back to read it again slowly.
    Maths I can do but gambling has always been a mystery to me. I just wouldn't bet on who ever I vote for as I'm always in the minority!

    I suppose if I'd have Betted on our current MP last time, for the party I never vote for then even though my side lost I'd still be a winner.

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  6. Friday's prediction on the elections etc site show UKIP will win 3 seats in the general election, so Thanet South must be one of them.

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  7. What are the candidates policies for Thanet? Ladbrokes can hardy offer odds if they don't know?

    Also who is the Labour candidate in North Thanet? And odds there?

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  8. 9:14 that would mean only about 5 UKIP MP's in total(and 2 of those were Tories on their way out) not really the Purple Revolution Farage is claiming...

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  9. Anon 1.00, that's 3 ukip predicted seats in total, 283 cons, 281 lab, 26 libdem and 39 SNP who will put lab into power.

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  10. The betting odds facts

    I got my bet on UKIP for Thanet South a while back at 5:1 before the UKIP Kent breakthrough at local elections.

    My guess is there will be a late swing against Labour due to the Milliband factor. UKIP will get more than 5 seats. Tories will do better than expected.

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  11. Yes 3:35 a LibLab pact looks more likely.

    But as 5:12 says Miliband isn't really seen as a leader, and Labour haven't overcome their failure on the economy from the last election.

    UKIP could whittle down the Conservative vote but won't hold the balance of power - why are they so popular but haven't got any policies not even repatriation of immigrants?

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  12. Anon 5.12, the electoral calculus site prediction with UKIP lying in 3rd place shows that you have done your money.

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  13. Anon 5.12, the electoral calculus site prediction with UKIP lying in 3rd place shows that you have done your money.

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  14. Thank you, but my long term bet is for Thanet South and the odds have shortened a lot since I placed down the money.

    I see that George Galloway is offering his services to chair the child abuse inquiry. The history is a very serious matter that could become a millstone for Cameron and May by May (see what I did there)

    The Iraq Inquiry on the other hand might by then create a Blair legacy millstone for Milliband.

    It could end up playing as Bullingdon Club synarchists, privileged, betrayers of the constitutional monarchy and deviants versus warmongers, betrayers of the constitutional monarchy and economy destroyers who spent other people's money till they bankrupted us.

    Which way is a pleb to vote ??





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