Saturday 31 December 2011

Thanet Predictions for 2012

 I am feeling my way with this one and will add things as they come to mind, first with the subject, then perhaps the possibilities followed by some sort of prediction.

Local politics.

Council leadership.

This is a bit of a tricky one, my guess is the Conservative group will try to put up some sort of leadership challenge fairly early in the new year, probably with a leader from the existing shadow cabinet: Bob Bayford, Alasdair Bruce, Simon Moores, Chris Wells and Martin Wise.

So the first prediction is it will be one of these.

The other variable here is which councillors will get ill, die, vanish or disgrace themselves so badly that they are unable to hold office or change sides, changing the political spectrum.

With this one, it isn’t necessary to think in terms of individuals, only which group they fall into: Labour, Conservative or independent. 

I think recently the Conservatives have the worst record on this, however I suppose the laws of chance mean that it must be a Labour councillors turn soon.


Will Infratil pull out or won’t they? This of course is also effected by who they could sell it to, my guess is the chance to sell to anyone is something they would jump at and of course any prospective buyer may not want to run it as a conventional airport.

Will we get any sort of night flights policy?

China Gateway with a share price of 4.38p see and the failure to secure the 106 I don’t see much progress there over the next year.


The 2 year health and safety permit for the site runs out early 2012, this was for 200 workers, I have never seen more than four workers on the site, so the calculation that if it takes 200 workers 2 years to build it then with four workers on site will probably take 100 years to complete seems about right.

Will the new administration try and do anything about this one?

The options here are I think, end the development agreement based on the developer being 98 years behind schedule (sorry that can’t be right I think I mean two), insist on the basic safety checks recommended by the environment agency, allow the developer more time, nothing.


I think this one may be a bit tenuous and that we perhaps need to sign the petition to impress the planning inspector. Have a look at Will Scobie’s blog

Not sure about petitioning in Margate High Street on bank holiday Monday, will anyone be there? I think the choice here is between a developer who wants to get the maximum profit from housing on the site and local people who want thw maimum leisure on the site.


Houses again with this one although the two of the main contenders as developers seem to be TDC and KCC leisure too, there is also the sexist factor here, remember our new cabinet has female members.

Here in Kent Ramsgate was the first place to have a female mayor, Janet, and it was this Janet who gave Jacky Baker’s farm to the town, this is what she had to say about it:

“ In providing the ground for the young people of the town a new lung had been added to the borough [Ramsgate] which would be appreciated not only by those alive now but by their children’s children.”

Now a big chunk of this land was swapped with a big chunk of the Eurokent land and if the houses are built I don’t think there are plans to swap it back, just build houses on the swapped playing fields. 

What with one thing and another I am predicting that this development will flounder.

Developers seem to predict that profit will only be derived from either providing people housing, prepared food or alcoholic drink. Looking to cash in on this has few exceptions.

So I predict there will several new developments based on this.

Funny how the various plans for providing economic regeneration in Thanet are either environmentally bad like the airport, or economically damaging like importing goods from China.

So I would predict that there will be at least one large regeneration plan that involves damage to the UK economy or the environment.     

I will add to this as new years eve progresses, hopefully answers will appear in the crystal ball or some other glass.  


  1. I think "our Simon" is waiting in the wings to be the next leader, but he is unlikely to show his hand until there is a good chance of success and maybe an election to fight. (Sorry Simon, have I spilled the beans :-) Happy New Year)

    Infratil have taken 3 steps backwards recently, Labour admin, loss of Flybe, and no Parkway, I am sure they are praying for a buyer ASAP.

    Eurokent to houses is your best bet for the next environmental disaster, TDC and KCC providing themselves with planning permission
    De ya vu China Gateway.

  2. Agreed Readit. My wizardy bird bath gives the same portents.

  3. Cllr Moores has rubbished suggestions that he is considering a leadership challenge. To quote Mandy Rice-Davis would maybe be appropriate here?

  4. I suppose realistically this is most about who would be acceptable to the Conservative group, mostly the other members of the cabinet. I doubt that Bob Bayford would be acceptable to Jack Cohen as not only did he make him look a bit of a twerp over the framework thingy, but also there is a lot of old history between the two, so they would need a considerable swing to keep Bob. I think the way this sort of thing works is they prefer to have a leader who is a bit of a front man and potential fall guy, not sure they would want Simon who is bright enough to be able to hold public dialogues with local people, many of whom disagree with him.

    One needs to remember that if they really wanted a Conservative leader who would make some changes, perhaps even treat all of Thanet equally, then with Thanet being predominately Conservative the elected leader method of government would be the way to go.

    What they seem to like is the system where the Cabinet selects the Leader and the Leader selects the Cabinet, a sort of balancing of old debts favours and levers. My guess is that none of the Conservative group have found any significant skeletons in Simon’s cupboard.

    Where I think the real problem lies is that many members of the Conservative group don’t seem to follow any political ideology and appear to have joined mainly to get elected, I would say this is another hindrance to Simon becoming leader, as he does seem to have formed some genuine Conservative opinions.

    The bottom line in Thanet though is that local politics is not so much about getting the best person in, as keeping personal opponents out and this is complicated in both parties by the fact that old enmities go way back.

  5. Michael,

    Re Royal Sands, the permit as you call it is an F10 notification and it reads completion 2014 not 2012. The F10 is not a programme guide but is used to register a site with the HSE and can be updated/ extended at any time.

  6. Michael,

    Re Royal Sands, the permit as you call it is an F10 notification and it reads completion 2014 not 2012. The F10 is not a programme guide but is used to register a site with the HSE and can be updated/ extended at any time.


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